China venture capital, winter is coming

source ： Rongzhong Finance （ID：thecapital） author ： Gardenia   edit ： We

Changes in valuation , Not only is PE/VC Topics of concern , It is also the key to the survival of many start-ups .

today , China's venture capital industry , We are facing unprecedented difficulties and challenges .

“ Entrepreneurs used to block the door , Investors are blocking the door now . Many institutions in order to get good projects , Some investment terms have even been relaxed .” Lifted 3 A project , Compared with the high point after listing , It fell almost half . Now it's just a return . And this pressure has been transmitted to the fundraising side .”

Enterprise check data show ,2022 First quarter of 2009 , Co occurrence in China's Venture Capital Circle 3291 Financing from the event , Year-on-year growth 63.%; The amount of financing exceeds 6660 One hundred million yuan , But it fell year-on-year 21%. among , Proportion of angel round or seed round financing events 7.32%,A Round share 15.65%, exceed B、C、D Total proportion of wheels 9.63%.

Looking back at the later stage , Proportion of strategic financing events 52.45%,IPO Stage proportion 4.98%, Proportion of M & A 9.02%, Proportion of private placement 0.94%. Especially in the strategic investment stage , exceed 1700 rise , Year on year growth rate reached 223.1%.

let me put it another way , In order to avoid the embarrassment of too high valuation for capital investment , They began to focus on A Round and previous investments , Cast early 、 I'm afraid the trend of small investment is also a last resort ; On the other hand , Actively participate in corporate governance with strategic investment , Perhaps in terms of ensuring investment returns , Only believe in yourself and choose to fight in person . But in the primary and secondary market valuation upside down is serious today , The consequence of this choice is that investors will sooner or later suffer the consequences , It's just a matter of time .

today , Continuous fermentation of COVID-19 , The affected area and depth are expanding , The development of many enterprises has been affected , The financing process is also greatly slowing down for various reasons . Combined with the , The window of US stock listing is still facing difficulties , dollar LP There are frequent voices of watching and even withdrawing from the Chinese market . anxious , Perhaps it is the true portrayal of investors now .

01 “ Best catcher ” Deep venture capital 50 There was no obvious change in the second morning

Because of COVID-19's repetition , And geopolitics ,2022 Since then , For the primary market PE/VC for , Obviously, the project valuation and risk control are more strict , Choose earlier stages and tracks that can be profitable in the long term , It seems to be becoming a safe haven from the correction of the secondary market .

In terms of investment ,2022 year Q1, Deep venture capital 50 Time , Become “ Best catcher ”, The field involves automobile manufacturing 、 Chip development 、 Biological medicine 、 Artificial intelligence, etc . Compared with the first quarter of last year , investment 22 Time , Rhythm changes Obviously .

Besides , Sequoia shot 40 Second place , Hillhouse venture capital takes 34 Third place , Junlian capital and Xiaomi group are among the top five . It should be noted that , Represented by Xiaomi and Tencent CVC Compared with last year, the investment rhythm has changed greatly .

From the perspective of Tencent investment ,2021 First quarter , Tencent invested the most , total 87 Time ; Compared with , Only this year 24 Time , In the same period 72.4%. According to Tencent investment insiders , From the Spring Festival , The team has begun to limit the speed of shots , If you can't do it, don't do it .

Another reporter found that , In fact, some head mechanisms , In particular, the rhythm change of RMB funds is not obvious .

Dachen in the first quarter of this year , Intelligent manufacturing investment 8 A project ,3 Software and information technology ,1 A military industry ,1 A medical health ,2 A big consumer and enterprise service . Dachen insiders said ,“ From the track proportion of heavy positions , No big change . Last year, we made a total of 91 A project , Average first quarter 22 individual . Compared with , The rhythm is similar .” For its reasons , In fact, the investment logic of the mainstream track will not be greatly adjusted , What affects the rhythm is nothing more than project valuation  .

02  The amount of medical investment is the largest, and the investment in automobile industry is the most expensive

From the popular tracks ,2022 year , Medical health has once again become a tuyere , With the help of capital , The enterprise has achieved rapid development in new product R & D and upstream and downstream industrial chain integration , The medical and health industry is also developing towards high-precision and cutting-edge direction .

Enterprise inspection display , First quarter , Health care 、 Enterprise service 、 Chip R & D and other fields are the first choice in the investment market , Favored by investors . among , A total of financing events occurred in the medical and health industry 507 rise , The largest number , The disclosed amount is 576.93 One hundred million yuan .

For a long time , The medical and health field has always been the focus of capital's long-term attention , Especially during the epidemic , With the improvement of people's health awareness , Increasing demand for medical services , The medical and health industry has entered a new era . however , The healthcare industry is maturing , Investment is more focused on the head players , The importance of M & A and strategic investment has gradually increased . But on the whole , China's new health care covid-19 has tested the achievements of China's medical and health technology development. , At the same time, it is also a great opportunity for capital to preempt the layout .

Co occurrence in enterprise service industry 301 rise , Chip R & D Industry 232 rise , However, the largest amount of financing disclosed is the automobile manufacturing industry , the height is 2216 One hundred million yuan . Relative , Although culture and entertainment only produce financing Events 46 rise , But the total amount of financing is as high as 508 One hundred million yuan .

Besides ,VC/PE The penetration rate of Kechuang Board reached 88.9%, This shows the favor of hard technology enterprises . Relatively speaking , Beijing stock exchange “ Specialization and innovation ” Insufficient proportion of enterprises listed 2%, Investment institutions still have huge exploration space .

03  The project valuation is too high VC Be more cautious

Another survey shows that , In the current market ,46% Investors believe that , The valuation of investment projects this year will be more dead than that of last year 、 Give lower . Many investment managers also told Rongzhong reporters , The interior has been “ Death order ”, We should judge the situation , Don't do it easily .

On the investment side , One side , Affected by the epidemic , Due to the inability of offline adjustment , Investment in many institutions has slowed , On the other hand , Have to say , The scale of early financing continued to increase , Especially seed round financing , Overvalued , It makes it difficult for many institutions to sell .

Only from the perspective of enterprise service market , from 21 Beginning of the year , The valuation has risen collectively , Part of the subject matter is FA Under the support , price oneself out of the market , Some contracts worth tens of millions and millions of annual revenue A Wheel and B Round project , Over valuation after investment 20 There is no shortage of RMB 100 million , Even more than 30 RMB .

A head of Renminbi institutional investors make complaints about reporters. ,“ Today's A Round of financing volume , In fact, with 2010 Year of B The volume of round financing is about the same . I don't know if the quality of the project is really good , still ‘ Money is not worth ’ 了 .”

in fact , On the market today , Most institutions want to get the right share at a lower price , The front has been extended to the early stage , Expect to invest in good projects . But then the problem is , The technology and product maturity of start-up projects are not high , And lack of financial data , The risk is too high .

thus , In turn, , Many organizations have higher and higher requirements for early projects .

In the past two years , When the seed round financing is successfully financed , The proportion of revenue generated by start-ups is rising alarmingly . complete A More than 100 companies in the round of financing 80% All have generated income , Compared with the past, it has been significantly improved . in other words , The company has made substantial business progress . Need to know , Think of the original AI The four little dragons and those enterprises on the science and Innovation Board , At the time of listing, they are still in a state of loss .

“ In a word , Now the situation is , No matter what A Wheel melting B round ,D Wheel melting E round , Dugui , Because it's not cheap in the early days .” The above investors said .

From the exit side , You can't get money if you go public , If you can't get out, you're in a hurry .

2022 First quarter ,VC/PE The pace of listing of invested enterprises is also slowing down as a whole . however , The average book return increased significantly , achieve 6.35 times , near 8 New year high . especially , And 2021 Compared to , Average book return multiple （ When the issue ） The science and innovation board and the growth enterprise board have significantly improved .

However , Sadly , Even if the project goes public , Investment institutions may also face a lack of money 、 An anxious dilemma .

a PE Institutional partners told reporters ：“ Now the primary and secondary markets are obviously upside down . Lifted 3 A project , Compared with the high point after listing , It's almost halfway down . Now it's just a return . And this pressure has been transmitted to the fundraising side . Why is everyone talking about long-term investment , Need more patience LP. Because it takes time to exit . That's not another story .”

today , The most potential investment market must be in China , China's most valuable investment must be high technology . once , For some institutions , Market sentiment is too optimistic , The performance of some investment projects is not good , Subsequent financing is difficult , Valuations are hard to sustain . And the performance of Zhongyu stocks overseas is poor , The exit earnings of dollar funds will also suffer heavy losses . This will undoubtedly lead to the dollar LP stay 2022 Become more cautious in . This is certainly not a good thing for dollar funds or dual currency funds .

Whether investing or raising money , China's venture capital industry , We are facing unprecedented difficulties and challenges . As Chen Yi invested in Liu Xiaodan LP What the conference said , Under the background of drastic adjustment of capital market , Once exit is blocked , The price is hanging upside down , Over time , The pressure on investment institutions has soared , The reshuffle of Chinese investment institutions is inevitable . Apply a classic American drama line ,Winter iscoming！