For programming trading, focusing on forecast or on countermeasures?

Some people think that program trading is about forecasting. If you use a method to study and judge the trading market, when the probability of being right is greater than the probability of being wrong, this method or system is regarded as effective, and you can use it to make money..

Is that true?

Many traders do this, and this is the case with short-term master Williams. He believes that it is not difficult to find such a systematic method in the investor market, as long as the corresponding statistical analysis is done on the data, the probability is high or the probability of winningBig can be executed, coupled with proper risk control can be profitable.

Although there is a way for some people to make money often in the market, Buffett will not admit that making money is just a matter of luck. He is a unique place to really discover the value of stocks. He is also a firm denial of the market efficiency theory.

When a trader proves that a certain programmatic trading method is effective through statistics, then this trading method has a predictive function in the trader's view, so that the trader can use this method to study and judgeWhether the market is going up or down, the prediction is very simple at this time, and the trader becomes very confident, but only with the predicted result and his self-confidence.

Can this trader become a successful trader?

We know the answer is no.If you think that there is a method that can help traders to judge the market is the programmatic trading method, and that trading with this method is programmatic trading, then you are very wrong.

First, there is no 100% effective analysis method on the market. Even if this method is effective, it will be difficult to use, which will reduce its effectiveness.

Statistical results are related to statistical data, and subjective forecasts largely ignore this relationship, so it is conceivable to enter the market based on subjective forecasts.