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Gartner announces emerging technology research: insight into the meta universe
2022-04-23 16:20:00 【CSDN cloud computing】
Contribution | Gartner
Produce | CSDN Cloud computing
according to Gartner forecast ,2026 In the world 30% Our business organization will have metauniverse products and services .
The metauniverse is a persistent universe composed of independent but interconnected networks 、 Immersive digital environment , However, the communication protocol that these networks will use has not been determined yet . The metauniverse can achieve lasting 、 De centralization 、 Interoperable collaborative digital content , And these contents are related to the real-time of the physical world 、 Space oriented intersects with indexed content .
Meta Platforms( With Meta Nominal operation , Formerly known as Facebook)、 Microsoft 、NVIDIA、 Tencent and Roblox And many other companies have been imagining and establishing their own meta universe . But the technology to realize the metauniverse is still in its infancy, and the number of early adopters is very small ,Gartner It is expected that the metauniverse will not enter the early mainstream field of vision until at least eight years later .
The solution currently positioned as a metauniverse has potential compatibility , But they don't fit the definition of a complete metauniverse . Early solutions may have one or more properties ( persistence 、 De centralization 、 Collaboration and interoperability ), But it doesn't have all the attributes required by the mature metauniverse . Early solutions included games 、 Virtual collaboration 、 Navigation application 、 Social media and homogenization pass (NFT).Gartner Predicting a mature metauniverse will not depend on devices 、 It does not belong to any manufacturer and will be owned by digital currency 、 A virtual economic system composed of non-homogeneous certificates or similar elements ( See Figure 1 ).
Figure 1 、 Part of the complete metauniverse
The initial obstacle to the success of the metauniverse
The process of building a mature metacosmic solution will have many challenges . If the metauniverse remains fragmented and continues to provide isolated experiences , A complete metauniverse will never be realized . Besides , If every company tries to build its own divided metauniverse , Then the structure of the meta universe will become chaotic 、 It's hard to distinguish , Unable to take advantage of the combination . Here are some of the initial challenges that may hinder business organizations from developing complete metauniverse solutions .
At present, the governance of the meta universe is still in its infancy , Therefore, the development of the meta universe needs to maintain social cohesion as the basis of consensus governance , Otherwise, it may cause damage to the whole society .
Because the data can highly accurately reflect the reality , Therefore, data security will become very critical , And some basic regulations need to be formulated to protect user information . To avoid deep forgery 、 Avatar intrusion 、 Data leaks and cyber attacks , Enterprises and institutions must invest in the construction of network security .
When digital commerce expands to represent the size of an economy , There may be tax and other regulatory issues , It is even necessary to further determine the legal effect of enterprises in the meta universe .
Every application in the metauniverse can be an isolated application , This will lead to the metauniverse becoming a chaotic world composed of many applications .
Last , The immaturity of enterprises and institutions in the construction of products and services may hinder the popularization of metauniverse .
The meta universe is a combinatorial trend , A complete metauniverse requires a variety of technologies and Trends
at present , Innovators and early adopters of emerging metacosmic solutions are providing device dependent isolated experiences . They adopt an access based delivery model , And all products and services are designed around this model . Because every enterprise focuses on developing products independently , The current metauniverse is still scattered and difficult to distinguish .
The meta universe is a combinatorial trend , Many important things in the metauniverse 、 Dispersed 、 Trends and other technologies will interact independently . Metauniverse will need to use a number of technologies to create an augmented physical and virtual reality (VR) The parallel world of . The current solution ( As the game 、VR And navigation ) Use augmented reality / Virtual reality (AR/VR)、 Virtual Assistant / natural language processing (NLP)、 The Internet of things 、 cloudy 、 Environmental Mapping and biometrics to create preliminary emerging meta cosmic solutions , These solutions can be accessed through edge devices or smart devices . Some technology alliances may launch more viable metacosmic solutions ( for example Oasis Consortium) Or meeting ( For example, the meta universe Summit (MetaCon)、 Global metacosmic Congress (Metaverse Global Congress)).
The metauniverse is expected to be in 2023 or 2024 In, it entered a more advanced stage . This stage will require AR cloud 、 Spatial positioning 、 Sensor fusion 、 Spatial orientation and retrieval 、 Multimodal user interface 、 Advanced virtual assistant ( For example, independent display )、 Interoperability 、 Data integration 、5G、 Distributed ledger 、 The Internet of things 、 Deep neural network (DNN) And artificial intelligence (AI) application , They will complement the current solution . Because people need to enter the skin seamlessly in different applications ( Avatars ) Or holding assets ( for example NFT), Therefore, digital human will play a key role . Possible local government intervention , Or because of the government's restrictions on some privacy related products / The service may impose restrictions on use , This phase will last a long time . Italy and Ireland were against Facebook Questioning the privacy of smart glasses is an example . More worries will be highlighted with the emergence of more advanced meta cosmic solutions . If businesses and institutions can unite , So to 2028 There will be one that does not belong to any manufacturer 、 A meta universe solution that is interoperable and can be displayed independently .
As the metauniverse begins to mature ( Although it still needs to wait for at least seven to eight years ), The product owner who evaluates metauniverse must include products and services in his future roadmap .Meta、 Microsoft and NVIDIA And other key players are already developing some preliminary solutions , And is studying technologies that support the development of the meta universe , There are also some start-ups developing various products and services in a scattered way . In the short term , The field of application of the meta universe will be very limited , But more mature solutions are expected in the future , More dynamic cooperation will be established between enterprises and institutions including the development of metauniverse 、 There will be more ecosystem partners .
The metauniverse will replace the interaction that many devices rely on , And create new interaction types and business models in a variety of applications
Although the metauniverse is not yet able to bring immediate benefits and opportunities , But emerging metacosmic solutions herald the emergence of potential use cases . We predict that the transition to the meta universe is no less important than the transition from simulation to digitization . Metauniverse will provide real-time information for various interactive scenes in the physical world 、 Interesting 、 Operational information , For example, enterprises and individuals find their way 、 Industrial equipment maintenance task guidance 、 Museum interactive presentation 、 Dynamic information overlay of knowledge workers , And enhanced social network filters . In digital interaction , People need the ability to cross different virtual domains , For example, through any specific interface / Applications from office meetings “ delivery ” To social gatherings 、 Video games or underwater travel . Although the current meta cosmic experience cannot completely replace the application 、 Digital interaction on websites, etc , But metauniverse will lay the foundation for new interaction and business models to further optimize these new use cases .
Yuancosmos will also have a wide and direct impact on many industries , Including communication and media 、 retail 、 Electronics 、 semiconductor 、 manufacture 、 engineering 、 education 、 Banks, etc . As the next frontier of online interaction , It will also promote the marketing of enterprise products and services 、 Brand building and sales posts have a direct impact .
As the combination of digital innovation may form a new trend , The areas adjacent to the current business of the product owner provide a lot of opportunities for metauniverse solutions .Grab and Meta Wait for the current “ Super application ”, Will business 、 social media 、 Private leasing and online delivery business models are packaged into one application , It points out the direction for the interoperability requirements of applications . As the metauniverse becomes less and less dependent on user devices or applications , To identify cross application opportunities , The product owner must not focus on the direct application scenario of the product .
The early adopters of metauniverse will be industries such as games and navigation applications , Other industries will soon join this team , Social media, for example 、 Live concerts and other offline activities 、 Virtual reality 、 Workplace, etc . Product owners need to closely track successful use cases in each industry , They will herald the successful entry of the industry into the metauniverse .
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